Dynamics of frequency and intensity of cold waves in Ukraine under global warming
Abstract
Aim. Detection of spatial and temporal specificities of the frequency, duration, intensity, and magnitude of cold waves in Ukraine and determination of tendencies in their changes in 1981-2020. Methods. The study used modern climatological and statistical tools, including the methods of objective identification of extreme events based on daily percentiles of minimum air temperature, probability distribution analysis, and regression approaches to assess the dynamics of changes in indicators. The climate and geographical analysis of seasonal variability of indicators allowed for the detection of their spatial and temporal characteristics in different agroclimatic zones of Ukraine. Results. For the first time, a systematic analysis of cold waves in 1981-2020 was conducted for the entire territory of Ukraine using a unified methodology based on the threshold values of the 32nd, 5th and 0.3rd percentiles of daily minimum air temperatures at 187 meteorological stations. Based on these indicators, a classification of cold waves of varying intensity was proposed: strong (32nd-5th percentile), very strong (5th-0.3rd percentile), and extreme (below 0.3rd percentile). It has been established that an average of 16-17 cold waves are observed in Ukraine each year, 84% of which are strong, 14% are very strong, and about 1% are extreme. A set of spatial and temporal patterns of frequency, duration, intensity, and magnitude of cold waves has been determined for all agroclimatic zones, which allows for a highly detailed characterisation of climatic risks. It has been established that the most intense and powerful cold waves are characteristic of the eastern regions (especially Luhansk, Sumy, and Kharkiv), where the minimum temperature during very strong cold waves in the winter season can drop to -20°C and below, and the magnitude of such waves can reach maximum values. The least frequency and poorly manifested cold waves are observed in western regions, in particular in the Chernivtsi region. Winter cold spells are the most intense and last the longest, while spring cold waves pose the greatest risks to agriculture. Statistically significant trends have been identified in the decrease in the frequency and intensity of cold waves in Ukraine, which correlate with current manifestations of global warming in the mid-latitude of the Northern Hemisphere. A significant weakening of cold waves in Ukraine has been observed over the last four decades. A statistically significant decrease in the recurrence of both short-term (2-5 days) and long-term (≥6 days) cold waves has been recorded throughout the country. At the same time, the decrease in long-term cold spells is more intense and more uniform in space, indicating a weakening of persistent advective intrusions of cold air. Regional anomalies in the change in cold wave characteristics have been identified, in particular, an increase in short-term spring cold spells in the Eastern Forest-Steppe, Steppe zone, and some areas of Polissia and Prykarpattia. This is a new key finding that contradicts the general trend towards weaker cold waves. It has been shown that extreme cold waves have different dynamics than strong and very strong ones - their frequency does not change significantly, and their spatial distribution is clearly associated with local and regional circulation features. Conclusions. Cold waves remain a frequent phenomenon in Ukraine, despite the general warming of the climate. In 1981-2020, Ukraine experienced a statistically significant decrease in the frequency of cold waves, especially in summer and winter, which is consistent with trends in the mid-latitude of the Northern Hemisphere. The number of long-term and short-term cold spells is decreasing, with the frequency of prolonged (≥6 days) cold waves decreasing most rapidly, indicating a weakening of persistent Arctic air intrusions. The intensity and magnitude of cold waves tend to decrease, most noticeably in spring and autumn. Winter and summer changes are regionally heterogeneous, with local areas of intensified cold spells in eastern Ukraine. The greatest risks remain during the transitional seasons, especially in spring, when there is an increase in the recurrence of short-term but sharp cold spells in a number of regions (Eastern Forest-Steppe, Northern and Southern Steppe). This poses a threat to the early stages of crop development. Extreme cold waves in Ukraine are rare and do not change significantly in their frequency, but remain the most dangerous ones in terms of consequences. The most vulnerable regions are Polissia, Forest-Steppe, and the eastern regions. The identified spatial and temporal trends indicate a milder climate regime during the cold season, but high variability and local risks of extreme cold spells remain.
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